Estate agents believe that a Remain vote will be a far safer option for the housing market than one to Leave.
EYE’s snap poll yesterday, which ran from mid-morning through to 8pm, drew a total of 777 responses from agents.
EYE did not attempt to lead the responses in any way, and our stance on the referendum has always been neutral: we believe all readers are perfectly capable of making up their own minds.
So, without any steer from us, the responses may prove illuminating.
Almost all the responses were from the smallest independents with one to three branches.
Most (68%) said that the uncertainty over the referendum has already damaged their own businesses.
Nearly half (47%) report fewer instructions and 38% report less buyer demand than this time last year.
House prices, however, seem to have been barely affected, with only 4% reporting lower prices being offered and accepted.
But what could change after Thursday?
In the event of a Remain vote, only 34% of agents think the market will change, and 64% think it will not.
In the event of a Leave vote, it is almost the other way around: 77% of agents believe the market will be changed, while 23% believe there will be no change.
If there is a Remain vote, 62% of agents believe transactions will rise, against just 8% who think they will go down.
In the event of a Leave vote, the feeling is decidedly negative, with most agents believing that both transactions and prices will fall: only 9% believe transactions will rise, and 51% believe house prices will fall.
Agents are also inclined to believe that house prices would rise rather than fall after a Remain vote.
However, 30% of agents did not answer this particular question – just 136 out of the responses indicated house prices would rise, and 7% that they would fall.
Agents were much more convinced that house prices would fall in the event of a Leave vote (332 made this prediction, against only 7% who said they would rise).
Just one third of the agents (30%) agreed with the statement that the EU is a costly and bureaucratic machine which stifles entrepreneurship and which the UK should leave.
This was against 48% who agreed that the UK cannot afford to leave the EU and that we should stay.
However, 16% thought that whether the UK stays or leaves will make little difference.
A further 6% were undecided.
Of the agents – to whom we are very grateful – who answered yesterday’s snapshot poll, 62% were small independents with up to three branches, 15% had between four and ten branches, 5% had up to 20 branches and 2% had over 21 branches. A total of 18 replies were received each from those describing themselves as online and hybrid agents.
Comments (42)
Agree wholeheartedly with the Beano.
The scaremongering by Cameron is verging on ridiculous. Sadly he has opened up a can of worms which will repercussions for years beyond the result.
“I fear that remain will win and the rise of the far right (which is happening across the EU) will continue and we will have a point of no return”
Isn’t this the very definition of scaremongering?!! Jezze Louise this has to the most hypocritical post of the day, well done Ding Dong!
sacremongering?? I am just saying whatever the result they will be issues which arise such as the conservatives imploding (which may not be a bad thing depending on your political view)
Which is scaremongering!!!
If we continue the way we are going we are swapping our green and pleasant land (and gardens) for more roads, more congestion, more construction. We are queueing longer, waiting longer and living in ever smaller houses for more cost. We are swapping quality of life for a few more pounds in our pocket. In fact many are seeing less pounds in their pockets as wages at the bottom end stagnate due to increased competition in low skilled employment.
I dont think money should be put before everything else. It was the EU that kept terrorists and murderers from being deported, and it is the EU that makes decisions that takes millions with little accountability. Oh wait, my polish plumber saves me a few quid and my properties get let quicker…..
The unemployment is at its lowest level since 2005 and in general our economy has outperformed other western countries.
Therefore, if there are issues with services and infrastructure the question is where has the money gone? We cannot blame immigrants, who create economic output and pay tax, for government policies.
When I set up my business 10 years ago, we would be renting 2 bed flats to a single person or couple for £250 per week. That same property is now renting for £600 per week but to 2 sharers (3-4 people).
Most people who I grew up with have now moved out of London, having been frustrated with housing costs, they simply can’t afford to live here anymore.
I sold my estate agency business recently so I guess I now have a fairly non agent view on housing, which is that quite simply we cannot continue with the status quo, we need change.
Well said Paul H…
Immigration is one thing we can control
we can build more, but plenty of NIMBYs are about, so how do you deal with them
then there is the space, France have a similar population but they are 3 times the size in terms of landmass
then the real problem is infrastructure and how you fund? The M25 is already 6 lanes in places and like a car park at 7am
Remainers call you “racist” for mentioning immigration but for me, it will increase racism unless we have some form of control …(i am a British born Asian by the way)
Well, Paris has the same population as London on half the area.
Maybe I am wrong Romain
But if you take the Greater London V The Paris Metropolitan area, then you come out with a different result?
Bold Legal Group EU straw poll results. 169 responses (so far); 103 Remain; 48 Leave; 18 Undecided. If their was no economic uncertainty about leaving I think the figures between Leave and Remain would be very close indeed.
Like estate agents, conveyancers have an eye on their livelihoods and some feel the property market could suffer if we leave the EU. That has no doubt influenced many in their decision to Remain.
The answer is …….. wait till the weekend. Just like any budget … life will go on. The world is a bigger place than the EU.
The vote on here was rigged as i recall as you could not vote for a no change,
A very close fiend of mine used to run the law department in Aberystwyth Uni and often took students out to Brussels only to see last years graduates smiling at him who were working in research capacity earning 100K plus rent allowance etc.
Secretaries earning 100K plus.
In their words it was a massive gravy train for unqualified lawyers or anyone with a degree.
Britain contributes the second largest amount to the EU…That,s why they want us. Post Brexit if we leave they will have black hole.
As for all of the UK business Bosses, I wonder how many of them have been offered a Knighthood……time will tell on that one.
Rigged? Oh perleease.
I have £200 on ‘remain’ @ the odds on 4/11 so the result is clearly very important to me and I’d be very grateful if Eye readers would vote remain. Thank you in anticipation.
Cor Blimey
Its like an ‘On the Market’ thread 😉
lets be honest – This is a poll of Estate Agents. Estate Agents are traditional only bothered about their own bank balance and protecting their bubble. The poll figures are simply a reflection of industry folk hoping for an outcome which will not endanger their livelihood. Nothing wrong with that, human nature.
Estate agent or otherwise, you shouldn’t be basing your decision solely on the housing market. Much bigger issue. A strong housing market with all other area falling apart around it isn’t much good to anyone.
Exactly SoF. I read the other day that someone on the East Coast of Yorkshire was voting Remain because they believed we’d lose blue flag beaches. I mean how on earth did we survive before the EU? Pretty sure the Remain lot believe we’d be still living in caves if it wasn’t for the EU!
What an obtuse thing to say PP. The article you apparently read said someone found something positive in being in the EU, why would you have to take that to mean that actually they were making a back handed insult to those who don’t. Are you really that insecure??
Nothing obtuse there at all. Similar to the young pointing to the EU ceasing roaming charges. I mean if we had been outside of the EU we would have never campaigned for such action would we?
Would this be the same young you were suggesting, in the thread above, to be offering a better country to by voting to leave!?!
Shock Horror
an industry who rely on increasing houses prices (supply and demand) vote to remain !!
You can watch all the videos in the world which can sway you either way,
My personal experience has led me to vote leave because it has had an extreme negative on one family member.
“…an industry who rely on increasing houses prices (supply and demand)…”
Not strictly true. Increasing house prices does not increase income or profitability.
It can have the reverse effect – as anyone who has been an Agent for more than a decade all know to our cost.
Not strictly since the invent of fixed fees but letting agents, with whom I work, the commission based fee is the norm.
Increase in rents means by default an increase in commission.
I know in London, rents are getting beyond ridiculous (even room rents) because over demand. This in some way, can be controlled by reducing immigration. Yes, build more, but where and how high? In addition, where is the infrastructure? A report on the London Underground said 15 stations were already at capacity and this would worsen with increased population.
No one on the remain side has come up with any solutions or plans apart from stopping some benefits or arguing that the economy is far more important than the quality of life for people in terms of space and housing.
I fear that remain will win and the rise of the far right (which is happening across the EU) will continue and we will have a point of no return.
“Not strictly since the invent of fixed fees…”
Sorry – not only is this wildly incorrect for the vast majority of transactions but it also completely contradicts your previous statement:
“…an industry who rely on increasing houses prices…”
Increasing house prices generally slows volume as property becomes less affordable. Of course, in ‘boom’ times you can get suds on your custard but this is almost certainly followed by a ‘bust’ (aka crash/adjustment/soft landing/whatever) – which completely wipes the suds off and replaces them with brown, smelly, yucky stuff.
Give Resi Agents a choice, and they would take a steadily increasing market – say one which mirrored general inflation – and they would offer you their first-born as a thank you.
What could be better – prices rising in line with wages; a ‘guarantee’ for buyers and sellers alike that prices won’t crash or fly off the handle – leading to increased confidence and stability.
But, hey-ho – that’ll never happen.
In the meantime, of course – we can but dream…
I am carrying out a similar poll with my Bold Legal Group members this morning. For anyone interested, I will post the results here this afternoon.
And the winner is…..project fear.
As opposed to what?…..Project wishful thinking.
Project hope. Project having a future to look forward to. Project having immigration under our control. Project having public services that are manageable. Project having no more absurd diktats from Brussels. Project democracy. Project sovereignty. Project pride in my country rather than sneering. Project unshackling from the rotting corpse that is the EU. Need any more?
And it still all sounds like wishful thinking, with the added bonus of every single monetary analyst and investment broker telling you that in all likelihood we would head into a recession as a result of it.
But of course I love how those of the leave side of the fence tell us how all the experts are wrong and then of course produce their c/v’s to justify why they know better.
I remember every single downturn and recession in my 30 year career. I have no love of the EU but only a fool would steer a course directly into a storm.
REMAIN: More EU/less UK. More diktats/less democracy. Uncontrolled immigration. TTIP. More bailouts. Stagnant growth. No control.
LEAVE: Hope. Great Growth Prospects. New Opportunities. Control. Independence. Democracy. Sovereignty. More money for UK services.
So when you said project fear earlier then PP you were referring to what campaign!?!?!
But lets look at your wish list;
Hope – yep I will give you that as that is about all the Leave campaign has. Great Growth Prospects – from where?
New Opportunities: from where?.
Control – over what?
Independence – wow thats a succinct one.
Democracy….How are we in anyway undemocratic in the UK now!?!
Sovereignty – See the video at the top of the page.
More money for UK services – now thats a brilliant one, so more money according to who? Michael Gove and Boris Johnson? ….All the financial institutions agree leaving the EU would be bad news for the economy and far from having money to spend on services, we would be propping up a devalued pound.
But I am sure that as a poster on an estate agents forum PP you are qualified to tell me the experts are all wrong and you know better……
Here’s the deal; I’m not going to change your mind and there isn’t a cat in hell’s chance of me moving to your position. What is important to me now with 48 hours to go is to ensure the undecideds vote the right way.
Classic. So when you are called on the inaccuracies of your statement and the inability to justify any of the statements you made, you retire to the fingers in ears, lah lah, I can’t hear you position.
What an advocate for the leave campaign you are.
Oh if only I had the time but I have this thing called work to do. Obviously if the country votes Leave on Thursday I’ll be out of a job and my house will be repossessed but I’ll have the cold comfort of knowing I tried my best to give my offspring and their offspring a chance of a future.
With respect PP does not have to justify any of his beliefs, it all makes perfect sense, if that is the way he feels. I recall all the hoo ha when we decided we didnt want to commit to the Euro, (our economy was going to fail then too?) There are too many people with their own vested interests saying what they want us to hear, make your own mind up, thats what PP seems to be doing.
Actually Beano I wouldn’t comment if the was all he was doing, but he wasn’t. He was actually suggesting that the argument to stay was based on fear and then proceeded to offer exactly the same argument of fear as the reason to leave. It was the hypocrisy of that I was calling him on.
Try this link for informative honest referendum info:
https://www.facebook.com/UniversityofLiverpool/videos/1293361974024537/
Just watched it. Very, very interesting and yes, it does influence my decision.
I saw that and thought it excellent and intelligent but I have decided to use a packet of Skittles to help me decide, if the last one out of the packet is green I’ll vote to go. If red, vote to remain (NB strong easy to follow and remember logic), any other colour means no decision made – eat another packet of Skittles. There’s a good chance I’ll reach a decision but a better chance I will get sick of the whole process as I am of the official one.
Thanks for posting this video again.
I posted it yesterday here on the previous thread on the topic and got disappointing responses from people who had complained about the lack of information on the referendum (you can’t make that up!).