Housing commentator Henry Pryor is forecasting an average drop of 4% in house prices across the UK this year.
He is alone among the housing experts who have given their forecasts to the BBC to predict a drop.
The others, including RICS, Nationwide and Halifax, are all forecasting rises of between 1% and 4% – and citing low supply in continuing to support high prices.
Pryor yesterday confirmed to EYE that he is expecting a price drop and said the market is facing a torrid time.
He said: “Everything points to things going bad from here.
“Money can’t get cheaper, wages are stagnant, London is slipping, Brexit blues will dominate and confidence will therefore lag.
“Because we are in that phase where people worry that what they buy today may be cheaper tomorrow, so they sit on their hands.
“There are more people who MUST sell than there are who MUST buy.
“Everyone is predicting fewer transactions which means (to me) fewer discretionary buyers/sellers and so the majority of sales will be those forced to move.
“Far fewer investors will want to pay top prices. They will want to feel they have a deal, won’t they?
“Yields have to rise and since rents can’t, capital values have to fall.
“I think this year looks really nasty.
“People in London (ok the top end) I speak to will only look at buying back in once prices have fallen by 30% (they have already slipped 10-15%) and even this would just take prices back to 2013.
“But more and more ordinary buyers are making offers: 85% of sales last month were below the guide, according to the NAEA. This is the trend, I think.”
I agree. Prices are dropping like a brick (we know because we are buying many properties in London at least 20% to 30% BMV). However stock is shockingly low. Amateur investors are slowly disappearing, FTB looking for deals. Agents starting to feel the pinch. There will be a bloodbath over the next few years. Only those who know what they are doing will come out winners.
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I disagree, whilst prices have softened in London (I know because I work here) the last 7 sales have achieved 3% of asking price not this crazy 20-30% you speak of so the agents your buying from are pricing wrong in the first place and secondly the prices we are achieving represent an average of a 7% drop in the year so again no representative of you massive 30%…. All down to agents knowledge and who your buying from clearly know nothing. Also almost all of our buyers have been first time buyers who are positive about the market, it’s dropped enough for them to get what they wanted last year for better value.
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gosh are those thumbs down from agents who arent selling in a difficult market…
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The thumbs down is from someone who can’t discuss or debate a point so all the anger and frustration, all the insecurity and weakness of position gets vented by thumping dislike.
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Why would the facts I’ve given make any one angry? Some one is implying you can get 20-30% off asking price in London, and they are wrong I am in London and prices havent fallen by that ammount.. Fact…. not a debate, not an arguement… a fact
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Some prices have and will fall by that amount. Each month I clean the land registry data for distribution to clients so I have an detailed and intimate knowledge of the transactions once they are recorded at land registry.For evidential purposes we are tracking what is going on and noting price changes Although you might not be seeing the reductions London is a very big and very diverse market
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femaleagent88 – #HNY2017!
I’m going to play Devil’s Advocate here – and would ask that you play the game.
How COULD buyers negotiate deals at “20% to 30% BMV” as 123430 suggests they are achieving?
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Happy New Year to you too! Think I need to get my own Twitter account to compete with you guys! It’s not truley BMV if they valued it incorrectly in the first place. If something is on the market for £900,000 your telling me they are buying it for £630,000…… That’s how dramatic that price drop is it’s just not true, in NW London £900,000 will get you a fairly decent terrace house, £630,000 will get you a two bedroom apartment, let be real these claims are false and just creating a hype that doesnt exist! Price’s haven’t fallen in this way period, I rememeber a lady arguing with me last year about her offer because the other 5 places she offered on had all dropped thier prices by 40%, her top purchase price was £500,000 she never brought over that, so she’s trying to tell me people just knocked around £200,000 off thier properties value… no one would do that a nice two bedroom flat isn’t going to all of a sudden be worth the price of a really out of date one bed apartment. And the flat she wanted took £15,000 off the asking price for the buyer who actually brought it, people talk such rubbish to create something that doesn’t exist
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THANK YOU for agreeing to play the game, femaleagent88!
You and I didn’t exactly get off to a good start a while back so we’ve got some catching up to do.
(for what it’s worth – I got off on the wrong foot with some of my best pals – especially those on here!)
You’ve pretty much nailed the answer to the door, young lady. Let’s now laser-etch it there for posterity, shall we?
NO SANE SELLER will – or should have to, for that matter – let a marketable property go at 30% below ITS TRUE “market value”.
Those that believe they are getting a “deal” that is too good to be true are getting exactly that.
But – if they like to live in the land of La-La then best let them live there peacefully.
They certainly wouldn’t like to try to move into my town – or your patch of SmokesVille either, I suspect…
;o)
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Does anyone mind if I beg to differ too. these annual sweeping generalisations happen every year and are simply meaningless puffery and PR
Some areas of London were over inflated by as much as 23% and some areas prices have readjusted by 12-15% since peaking in 2013, other area and property types are trailing their natural position by an equally large amount.
The market average will continue to push ahead as it has done for years and years, some prices will fall back some will catch up.
I’m no expert but I do know enough when people are talking rubbish
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Agreed. It has been known, from time to time, for some people to say almost anything to gain the light of publicity.
I think there seems to be a general realisation that London is having problems and has over inflated but the much of the country is doing very nicely, thank you.
We may well see low levels of transaction – not good for us – but there really are no signs of any over supply to lead to a correction.
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Agreed, the best thing to do with all predictions is tear them out, put them in a bottom drawer and look at them next December and have a good laugh. I have done this for years. No disrespect to Henry but they really only guesswork at best and axe grinding at worst.
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I dont agree with Pryor on this. I think London was/is overcooked and hadn’t had the adjustment the rest of the country felt in 2008 & 2009 so its been delayed. I work in the North of England and we’ve seen a very good start to 2017 following a record year in 2016 on all fronts. Its a dangerous move to start talking the market down so Im surprised at Henry for doing so but he does like the sound of his own voice so maybe this will get him more air time. He also has a business I believe that purchases property for clients so its perhaps in his interest to say this to get a better discount.
As Robert says above Im no expert either but I think there are too many people who class themselves as experts making noise. Truth is, no one knows. Happy New Year!.
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Remember Henry is a buying agent and it is his interest that he can point to prices dropping.
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I wouldn’t relish being a buying Agent in a market over inflated by 23%; negotiating a deal on a market that is set to fall away presents the same liability as a selling agent who undervalues in a rising market.
Haggling 5% off a property that subsequently drops another 20% exposes a buying agent to massive liability. ” If you knew the market was falling away why did you let me buy the place?”
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The same way Henry bangs on about users should be identified i think would be interested to see who gives the likes and dislikes.
My reckoning is Henry has had to log in and out four times to dislike my comment, who else would be bothered by it!
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Must be a slow morning for him 😉
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Henry does come out with some mild twaddle from time to time but on this occasion I reckon he is spot on. Brexit uncertainties and realities will begin to heavily and nagatively influence home buying and selling as the year progresses.
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Totally agree……this next few years is going to be a real battle. It’s underway already with agents slashing fees to compete and win listings. This has already caused a significant drop in turnover for many agents and this alone will end up causing many to close. 123430 is spot on….only the strong will survive.
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Yes………………….But only in London and immediate areas around. The rest of the UK will continue to see house price inflation as it didn’t accelerate anything like the London market did 5 years ago.
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I wonder if Mr Pryor has any pretty graphs to go with his latest opinions, as he always used to?
I have so many questions – but no-one to ask them of. He won’t engage with bacteria, pond-life or whatever derogatory term takes his fancy-of-the-moment – especially that which has no verified name or title.
I’m still waiting for a response to questions posed in 2011 down at Ros’ old pub…
…one day, maybe. ONE day.
I’m the eternal optimist, me – perfect Estate Agent material ;o)
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Thank you for your ‘input’, Mr P!
#HNY2017 ;o)
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‘Engage with bacteria’. I like bacterial names. Pseudomonas and Klebsiella are my favourites. Pseudomonas Brassicacearum, for instance, is capable of emitting hydrogen cyanide and affecting plant life in its local environment .
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We all learnt something today at PIE.
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Some would do well to remember and appreciate the stark reality that bacteria is supporting all life on the planet.
Like your list of ‘likes’, by the way. Personally, I’m rather partial to a bit of Thermoactinomyces vulgaris…
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The following link leads to his prediction last year. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35135639
It shows that he and RICS are as close as anyone, he was about right on volume (Land Registry state to November 1.135m transactions and at around 80,000 a month it will probable pan out just under 1.2m. He reckoned prices would be up 2% whereas RICS 6% and they are probably closer. If you look at the London and top end market, there is a stock/ego issue and a lot of the properties on the market are 20-30% overpriced, so that is where his figure comes from but as others have said he has an interest as a search agent and he needs to keep his currency with the journalists and BBC otherwise he won’t be invited for comment. But history has shown, when there is a boom followed by tax changes, problems occur. The gel haired pointy shoe brigade should ask their seniors about what happened after 1st August 1988! Hint, ask about Miras. On this occasion I feel his prediction is as close as any, however we all need to educate the market and journalists, the health of a market isn’t determined by price alone, you need volume. 1 swallow does not maketh a summer!
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What about the ‘prediction’ the year before that? Or the 2014 jobby? 2103… 2012…2011?
In 2014, Mr Pryor blogged, predicting house prices “Falling back in 2016 – perhaps by as much as 25% as the stimulants are removed and buyers hit ‘cold-turkey’.”
His blog was reported in the trade press – and I will simply cut’n’paste my own comment made at the time – which is just as true today, I would suggest:
‘First paragraph of the actual blog entry this “story” relates to:
“House prices are complicated and their future direction is hard to predict. Im often reminded that there are only two types of expert when it comes to predicting house prices those who dont know & those who dont know they dont know.”
And then, clearly, there’s the third type. The type who know they don’t know; can’t do anything about not knowing – but make a huge song and dance that they DO know cos they like their regular 15 minutes of fame.
Anyone spring to mind’
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“Just because you’re paranoid – it doesn’t mean they’re not out to get you!”
Just because it MAY (or may not) be in the interests of a “buying agent” to predict house price reductions, it doesn’t necessarily mean that those prediction are made out of self interest any more than the predictions of house price increases from a “selling agent”.
I have absolutely no doubt that Henry’s predictions are made from a position of absolute conviction and are evidence based rather than simply made out of perceived self interest.
He may be right or he may be wrong – but as a prediction for the UK overall ( specific geographical variables aside) my money’s on Henry!
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” Henry’s predictions are made from a position of absolute conviction and are evidence based rather than simply made out of perceived self interest”
You are having a laugh!?
Henry’s entire persona and business is built on self interest in my opinion.
He is fantastic at regurgitating other peoples stats and work, what does Henry actually provide?
He has shown himself time and again to be a rude individual who cannot interact with others.
As for a 4% drop no study has taken place, or able to back up with any fact its a random number he has plucked out of the air!
As PeeBee has show above his other predictions (to grab headlines) have not come to fruition.
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He is not the only one predicting a slowdown. If you will recall i made a comment on here a while ago about how we have reached a mortgage buying power level in the same way we had in 08. Buyers are now maxing out on 4.5 ish times albeit based on affordability and we have also maxed out c/cards over the last 6 months according to BOE stats. That tells me that borrowing capacity is at it,s peak and therefore prices in many but not all regions will fall to marry up with affordability. For those at the upper end (London) well these people buys designer goods with a label on from someone they have never heard of and probably made in the same sweatshop as the primani So they will still pay over the odds are they have wealth but want status.
Instructions are in short demand and many new agents don’t know how to deal with a market like this. For agents this will be the year of death by a thousand cuts in staffing and marketing.
A number of lenders have already moved rates up a smudge this year as libor has moved and I suspect but don’t know that Article 50 will cast doubts over what happens next. So Agents get your c/card down and your CV out
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What a load of ‘beaty swollocks’
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Dear all, Henry has taken exception to my post and is making me look a fool in front of all his Twitter followers, please come and enjoy my humiliation on Twitter
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Maverick – check your left…
…your wingman has you, Sir!
TALLY HO!
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I shouldn’t bother; he’s the one arguing with an idiot
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Tracer fire deployed… Set your Sidewinders to ‘Active’.
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Make sure you allow for all the chaff being dispensed in large quantities.
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Ah. PeeBee and May. The Statler & Waldorf of the PIE pages. How we missed them over the holidays.
Glad to see that Peace and Goodwill didn’t last much beyond the start of the new year…
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Ahhh… AgencyInsider – EYEs very own cure for insomnia.
‘Peace and Goodwill’ among Estate Agents is frightfully overrated.
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My goodwill evaporates with rudeness. Henry Pryor, no doubt fuelled by an un-easy confidence in his expert status when dealing with people who have done more, know more and have achieved more, mis-read my post believing it was a slant at him and decided he would use Twitter to Stag rut and attempt to humiliate me in front of his audience of followers.
I have already commented on new year price pundits this year so was commenting to everyone who offers up a new year price prediction (as a way of reminding us what it is they contribute to the industry)
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AgentV
That ain’t chaff…
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Cant as he has blocked me! – Like a spoilt little boy taking his ball away.
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The Quirkster blocked me quite a while ago as well – after HE added ME!
Take it as a compliment, mon ami!
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Ahhh the Quirkmister! – Now there is a blast from the past. We have not heard from him in a while any ideas why? 😉
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Perhaps he’s searching the streets for new investors.
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Because he has enough of other peoples money for the time being after his last crowd funding round. You’ll hear from him again when more is needed. Probably in about 2 months by the way these call centre telephonists go through wonga.
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Fresh from the laundry; the data set issued by Land registry end of December 2016 containing data to the end of November 2016; There were 878,951 unique transactions in the rolling 12 months (clean of the errors and duplications we can find) down 2.14% on the previous 12 months. The transaction average price was £279,905 which is up 4% from £269,103 the previous year.
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Here’s the thing. You can go on Rightmove and see whose over valuing by the amount of instructions and price reductions they create. So falling prices I’m not so sure. If a property is valued correctly then it sells, without the need to negotiate. This has to be the weirdest market I’ve worked in for 30 years. The last 20 years approx have been buoyed by the BTL buyers. The Government has seen fit to bring that to an end. This could cause the market to fall. But then you have a shortage of property and this will buoy the market. You have neither inflation in prices or deflation, so it’s all going to come down to how you negoatiate this year and that’s where the corporate kids might have a problem. Vendors and agents will need a strategy this year and be able to be flexible. I think the only way prices could fall is if they increase interest rates, then it will get interesting
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