Property commentators were at panic stations on Friday after HMRC data showed that housing transactions appeared to have slipped below 100,000 during June.
But a closer look at the figures actually shows the market was doing fine, even with the Brexit negotiations and General Election.
Data from HMRC showed there were 96,910 sales, down from 100,270 a year before – but only on a seasonally adjusted basis.
The actual, non-adjusted, figures show property transactions rose in June on both an annual basis and monthly, up 11.66% from May to 110,750. The number was also up 7.78% from 106,040 recorded in June 2016.
We have not seen any pundits’ comments on the actual rise in figures, but there were some who made the best of the bleaker picture painted by the seasonally massaged data.
Brian Murphy, head of lending for Mortgage Advice Bureau, said: “The majority of transactions which completed in June would have started in March, when Article 50 was triggered, or April when the snap General Election was called.
“We can now begin to see how this may have impacted on consumer confidence in bricks and mortar, with the data suggesting that actually, the market would appear to be ticking over in quite a consistent manner during a period of political and economic uncertainty.
“Of course, buyers can only purchase what is available on the market for sale, and as recent reports from other industry bodies such as RICS suggest, homes for sale in many areas of the country are approaching record low numbers, which may as yet be reflected in the number of transactions completed in the next few months.
“But what HMRC’s report does suggest is that people still want to buy property, and that demand for housing would appear to have been undiminished, no doubt assisted by the ongoing accessibility of record low mortgage deals, which is an underlying yet key factor to ongoing market stability.”
In my area (Surrey) many postcodes are showing a huge reduction in transaction for the first 6 months of 2017 when compared to the same period in 2016 (Land Reg Data)
On average they seem to be down by around 40%, which clearly isn’t great news.
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2017 more painful than 2008 thus far. Prices slowly softening, sellers taking a long time to get to grips with it.
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Yep, not helped by the PB valuations that are simply about getting a signed contract rather than offering genuine advice.
All this does is increase the amount of unsold stock which exacerbates the problem.
On the plus side, I think this market could well kill off the online agents. Vendors seem to have become more suspicious of their offering, especially now that selling is tough and the negative experiences are starting to circulate.
On Saturday we were instructed on a property that PB had “valued” £100k higher. It would have been easy for the vendors to have still instructed PB but at our price, but the vendors thought their whole pitch was amateurish. This proves that you can throw as much money into TV advertising as you like but if you can’t back it up at the coal face, it’s pointless.
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In my area (Surrey) many postcodes are showing a huge reduction in transaction for the first 6 months of 2017 when compared to the same period in 2016 (Land Reg Data)
On average they seem to be down by around 40%, which clearly isn’t great news.
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Estate agents can’t alter the current uncertainties in the housing market but whst they can do is take control of whst they earn. It doesn’t have to risk affecting affe ting your business. It’s not right that you are being kept in the dark. The fact is you can increase your profits by 28% right now. Take control of your conveyancer. In no other business does a company lose so much control over their profits to an external firm, i.e. Lawyers.
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Junes figures from the land registry probably represent sales conducted up to February this year. We were going great guns for take-ons up until they called the general election and since then valuations and appraisals have fell off a cliff. All agents across the country are saying the same as ‘uncertainty jitters’ affects the decisions of many people. Stock levels are markedly depreciating….but they won’t be reflected in land registry figures for another three months.
Just proves to me how much so called expert commentators really know or understand!
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