Regardless of today’s referendum result, lettings market to be ‘unaffected’ in short term

Whatever the outcome of today’s EU referendum, lettings agents do not believe supply, demand or rental costs will be shaken or stirred – in the short term, at least.

However while the private rented sector will be unfazed by the referendum result, Stamp Duty changes could continue to be an issue, according to the Association of Residential Letting Agents.

ARLA’s May Private Rental Sector (PRS) report found that two thirds of agents expect supply to stay the same if the UK votes to leave the EU, compared to just a fifth who predict it will fall as international landlords pull out of the market.

Almost one third, 31%, see demand decreasing as a result of a Brexit, while 55% think it will remain as high as it currently is.

However, two months on from the introduction of extra Stamp Duty charges, agents are starting to feel the effects.

A third (37%) of agents reported a fall in supply of buy-to-let properties since the Stamp Duty changes came into effect. This increases significantly in Wales, where 80% saw a dip in supply in May, as well as the east midlands and Yorkshire where exactly half of ARLA agents have seen a decline.

Almost half (48%) of agents expect supply will continue to fall as more landlords walk away from the market as a result of the mortgage interest relief changes coming into force next year.

David Cox, managing director of ARLA, said: “There is no avoiding the EU referendum at the moment, and whatever the outcome, we are likely to feel the impact of the fall-out of this debate in different ways.

“However, it’s important to put this into perspective and not get carried away. As outlined in our recent Brexit report, the lettings market hosts a large number of non-UK born citizens and any change in migration policy is likely to have an impact down the line, especially in London.

“However, our monthly report clearly shows the sentiment among members is that the immediacy of this effect is likely to be minimal.”

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