The experts are wrong again! House prices have defied forecasts so far this year

Property experts look to have misjudged the market’s prospects, with national house price growth likely to reach 5.3% this year, online agent Yopa claims.

The firm collated industry predictions and compares them to the indices from Halifax, Nationwide, Rightmove and the Land Registry.

The industry experts were on average estimating a 1.2% rise for UK house prices during 2017.

Buying agent Henry Pryor gave the direst view of the property market in January, forecasting a 4% drop to the BBC, while Ray Boulger of John Charcol mortgage brokers predicted 1% growth, Nationwide forecast 2% and Halifax  forecast 4%.

In reality, Yopa says house price growth is currently 5.2% higher than December 2016 and could hit 5.3% by the end of the year.

But even Yopa seems to have got its predictions wrong. It anticipated a 3-4% drop back in March.

It said at that time: “With Article 50 set to be invoked before the end of this month, many home owners and residents looking to get a foot on the property ladder are keenly watching how Brexit will affect the nation’s house prices.

“Looking at house price data over the past two years, we can see that all the major house price indices are showing a marked slowdown in growth since July 2016 – the month of the Brexit vote.

“It’s also been a rough start for 2017, with Nationwide, Halifax and Rightmove all showing a decline in house prices during January.

“If 2017’s house prices continue at their same downward trajectory, then we would be looking at a 3-4% decline for the year.”

YOPA added at the end of last week: “With thousands of variables at play, accurately predicting the future impact of Brexit on UK house prices is challenging.”

No kidding!

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One Comment

  1. mrtickle

    YOPA summed it up. Bigger forces at play.

    My initial response to the Referendum vote was that prices wouldn’t be impacted by Brexit as much as by the housing market in and of itself.

    I was wrong for 2 reasons…

    1) I expected a “Remain” vote.

    2) In the case of a “Leave” vote, I expected someone to actually take charge… but the b@lls up has made even the housing market (a typically strong-willed ecosystem) rub its eyes in disbelief.

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