Today is a big day for the country, with a crucial vote due this evening in Parliament on Brexit.
Looking at the agent that EYE uses daily to monitor the market generally, we can see that so far this year this south-east branch has not put one property under offer so far this year, and has just one new listing – although of course it could be marketing properties without publicity.
Brexit, perhaps?
However, on the other hand, we can also see from social media that Thomas Morris has 42.2% more sales this January than at the same point last year, with instructions up 51.2%.
Brexit?
Then there was the Telegraph story at the weekend about the vendors choosing to sell now, and then sit it out while renting before buying again, in anticipation of picking up bargains after Brexit-related house price falls.
Does this ring any Brexit bell with you?
Of course, none of us can influence tonight’s vote, resolve the Parliamentary deadlock or stave off the defeat that even the BBC reckons is inevitable and which it also says is just a matter of the scale of the defeat.
EYE is neutral on a subject under which the squelchy ground changes from day to day.
However, our readers are welcome to voice your opinions on the possible likely outcomes – and their potential effects on the housing market, which is after all your living.
These possible outcomes include:
- Accepting Theresa May’s deal
- A no-deal Brexit – ie, we just leave: one agent tells us that this could trigger ‘the mother of all recessions’, but maybe you disagree?
- A second referendum – the ‘people’s vote’
- Delaying and renegotiating – by its very suggestion, that would take time
- Staying as we are, in the EU
- Staying in the EU’s Customs Union
- A General Election
The last option would certainly not have the blessing of Brenda in Bristol.
But please do have your say.
What would be the best or worst outcomes, or indeed any possible outcomes, for our industry?
The worst outcome? Leaving the EU.
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In my opinion Brexit should not be a major influencer to the housing market in the short term. Since the start of January only one potential vendor has stated they intend to hold off until after 29th March and only one buyer has had slight wobbles…..how many are having doubts that havent contacted us may be a bigger question. For the most part if you let Brexit get you down, then it will do.
As for my own opinions, whilst i am a firm believer that leaving the EU is an awful mistake i would not make the same mistake discussing my opinions with clients as that is just begging for an argument. This topic is the most horrible and nation splitting subject i can remember. What a shambles our government have made of it
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Out without a deal is my own preference and having taken two under offer last week, with our office negotiating offers this week I don’t really see Brexit has a direct intrinsic impact on the property market. Circumstantial buyers and sellers are carrying on.
Financial markets, in particular interest rates show no sign of sharp increases over the next 12 months.
What’s hampering the market is a sentiment of uncertainty. Buyers and vendors are waiting to see the implications of a Brexit result. The fact we remain way down in housing supply numbers seems to have been forgotten. This demand with little supply will require an absolute economic catastrophe to damage the market.
I just don’t see it. It is similar to the fear mooted around the millennium of all types of markets collapsing, when actually nothing happened.
Ultimately who knows? Very interesting times over the next couple of months.
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In my humbe oipinion (apologies to CountryB): Commons accepting the deal – no chance No deal: Highly likely but disagree with this being the cause of a recession – I’ll explain later… 2nd Ref: what is it, the best of 3 now?! Keep asking till the constituents vote the way their MP’s wish them to! Delaying: Please don’t – that would be just kicking the can down the road for someone else to deal with it. Cancel Art 50: Not sure any Government can survive a flagrant disregard for the will of the people Staying in the Customs Union: again, that wasn’t the will of the people. General Election: Tories would have to agree to their own suicide. Turkey for Christmas sound familiar! I don’t mind sharing this: I was a Remainer – not for any other reason other than I thought leaving would be bad for my business (selfish, yes – but candid) Anyone who thought leaving, our divorce from Europe would be on terms we would like, was deluded…it is Brussels’ job to make it punitive, so other member nations don’t follow suit. We have been bullied in this separation, but we knew we would. That said, No Deal will inspire the tabloids to print things like: Don’t buy French/Italian wine (try California or New World instead) Stop buying German cars! We are a strong nation, particularly against bullies & compassionate to those being bullied, arguably too compassionate for our own good, but that’s what makes us Great – I say we take our ball away, be strong, adapt & then see who actually wants to trade with us on favourable terms. Don’t panic, be British. Interesting that the press stopped reporting on how Greece, Italy, France, Spain etc were getting along the moment we voted to leave…their plight used to make our headline. Is it all rosy in their gardens now?? I think not. When we do decide on our pathway, we shall only then learn of the ‘State of the Union’ on the mainland – & I’ll wager anyone it isn’t pretty! I watch with interest in what lies ahead and shall now put away my soap box & go sell some houses! whilst our elected Leaders, do what they have to do, which is LEAD.
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Very levelled, albeit it took less time to read and digest than work out what IMHO meant but have ‘got it’ now!
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I admit I voted remain, because I was worried about everybody’s jobs. I was worried that large companies locating in this country as ‘an English thinking gateway to Europe’ would change their minds, or choose not to invest in the future. I could not see any logic at all in walking away from the largest single market in the world that was on our doorstep.
However, remaining or leaving aside, one thought about a ‘No deal brexit’. Everyone says Europe needs us more than we need them. Really? We represent 8% of Europe’s export market, they represent 50% of ours. Could your business survive and thrive with an initial drop of 8%….I suspect probably….could it survive a 50% drop?
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Good point, well made. I see that Europe have been described as bullying us. Maybe it is entirely unfair for a group of (I’ve forgotten exactly how many) 27 ish to have more say than just one. It is obviously completely unfair on us not being able to tell the other 27 exactly how they should treat us and expect them to negotiate an exit that suits us more than them.
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The ups and downs of the market always seem to go in ten year cycles. Ten years is up….and we’ve got Brexit. There’s gonna be a big drop.
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I thought before the referendum that it would have been better to arrange for a deal, THEN vote to see if people were willing to accept it. I voted Remain, although I wanted to get some more control over the borders and laws, and I knew that there were other countered to trade with, the risks seemed to high to me. And we would still have to take a certain amount of refugees as party of treaties and agreements that pre-dated and over-ride the agreements within the EU. And the moral factor as well, that if you see someone suffering and can help then you should do so.
But I do think Theresa May has been treated abominably, mainly by politicians in her own country. The people who led the Leave campaign were offered the chance to take the PM job and work out the deal, and they refused. A very smart move by Mr Cameron in my opinion, making it clear that he did not want to leave, then washing his hands of it. So, up steps Mrs May. A lady who did not want to leave, but has taken the job and tried to make the best of it, despite being stabbed in the back every step of the way. Possibly a leader more committed to Brexit might have got a slightly better deal, but I’m not convinced. She went in to the negotiations making it clear that she didn’t want to sever all ties, but that she wanted the best deal for her country whilst sticking to the will of the people. A hard-core Brexiteer might have been less diplomatic and got their backs up.
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Sometimes the forest needs to burn so the new shoots can grow.
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For years we have been told that the enemy is at the gates (just like in a medieval siege of a walled town), just waiting to break through and take everything we think we have.
So, in response (whether it was true or not), we have finally decided to set fire to the town ourselves and go off into the wilderness to try and find somewhere else to live!
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Although I did not vote, I was sick and tired of the European Bureaucrats constantly interfering with our legal system. It seemed to me every time we ruled on a case if the loser did not like the decision they took it to the European courts where it was overturned. I also admit I also did not like the open door policy but this is mainly due to the state of the NHS, Having worked my whole life and contributing tax and NI to wait in agony for 7 months for an operation was the final straw. Human Rights and Political correctness are now beyond a joke.
IF (and i would be totally disgusted…best of 3 anyone?) there is a second referendum I would definitely vote to leave. The main reason is the way we have been treated by the other European countries and their politicians. What short memories these countries have…My Grandfather who fought in the second world war across Belgium, France and the Netherlands (where men were hugging,thanking and shaking his hand as he repatriated their towns) will be turning in his grave.
I understand that Europe don’t want us to leave because in my opinion it will be a house of cards…If we do well, no, if we just do OK the dominoes will fall and these money grabbing European Politicians will no longer be able to line their pockets.
If this is the price we have to pay for a few tough years then so be it….We ****** came through the second world war for Christ sake.
I also believe that the main stream media (especially the BBC) and our politicians have a lot to answer for, the scaremongering has bordered on the ludicrous. These politicians are not doing what is good for the country, they are doing what is good for their own agenda and should be ashamed of themselves.
I know this post will be controversial but sometimes it’s not just about money, sometimes pride as a nation is a factor.
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Davehedgehog
The main reason is the way we have been treated by the other European countries and their politicians.
So what is it exactly that you wanted the other European countries and their politicians to give us?
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How about allowing a limited time frame on the Ireland border for one.
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Leave us to sort out our own immigration policy.
Give us decent fishing rights.
Stop interfering in our legal system.
Let us have our own human rights policy.
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Gibraltar….Shall I go on?
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It looks like you have 75 to 80% of your wishes met in the withdrawal agreement (according to the PM anyway)…which is not a bad result in a negotiated deal, where both sides are supposed to give, as well as take.
So why would that mean we have been treated really badly in the negotiations?
I don’t know what you want with regards to Gibraltar.
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Wrong – We are not allowed our own Human Rights policy and will still be tied to the ECHR
Spain are giving us grief over Gibraltar.
France amongst others are still arguing over fishing rights.
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Spain giving us grief over Gibralter will always be the case, irrespective of whether we are in the EU or not.
The withdrawel agreement says we have control of our fishing rights, doesn’t it? Whether or not there will be disputes over exporting to Europe much of the fish we catch, as we do now, will surely be discussed as part of the trade deal.
My understanding was that membership of the ECHR is through being part of the Council of Europe, a separate organisation of which there are over 45 members (including Russia strangely), rather than the EU. I think we joined the organisation at least 25 years before we joined the EU, being instrumental in it’s initial set up (especially as the original treaties were signed in London). I guess we could withdraw, if we really wanted to, but it would surely be a totally separate decision to that of leaving the EU.
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‘Spain giving us grief over Gibralter will always be the case, irrespective of whether we are in the EU or not’.
And this is why they keep throwing a spanner in the works at every opportunity, They just disagree with everything to get us to negotiate over Gibraltar, it is their best opportunity. But you are right it will always be ongoing.
‘The withdrawal agreement says we have control of our fishing rights, doesn’t it? Whether or not there will be disputes over exporting to Europe much of the fish we catch, as we do now, will surely be discussed as part of the trade deal’.
No, it is a temporary deal, negotiations on tariffs etc will continue once this current ‘deal’ is signed…or not as the case will be.
May wanted out of the ECHR as she thought it would be too difficult to deport criminals under the current legislation but Europe threatened not to negotiate with security issues so she caved in.
The current Human rights legislation was signed up by Mr Blair……Now what does his wife do again…Oh yeah, that’s it, a Human Rights Lawyer. I understand your views AV but I think in this case we will just have to agree to disagree. Enjoyed it.
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Agreed, me too…always glad to debate.
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May I ask why you decided not to vote? I was brought up that it was my duty to attend a polling station; even if I ticked every single box and therefore invalidated the slip, I was still exercising my right to vote, and having my say, that I disagreed with all of the choices. I was horrified to discover that the office of ‘girls’ only 7-8 years younger than me were not planning to vote in a general election or the referendum as they “didn’t know who to vote for” or even who was running or what the election was about! And yet they constantly whined about the state of the country and the government (I’m not saying you are by the way!).
I’ve met a few people who didn’t vote, and I’m trying to understand why not.
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Good question. Someone pointed out to me today:
17.4 million people can vote
652 people and one bloke bending the rules can overturn that decision.
So you could argue what’s the point?
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Stay in or get out, i’m not sure either option is perfect or the answer to anything. What we need to do is get on with it and kill the uncertainty.
The worst option is having Mr Corbyn in number 10!
Regardless of your political views, his style of Socialism would send us back into the 1970’s only the debt would be a whole lot bigger!
The Government have made a pigs ear out of it, however, we were NEVER going to get a good deal!
As soon as we voted leave, our negotiations were finished. If we came out with a good deal and made a fantastic success of leaving, Europe would be finished as every man and his dog would want out! Europe HAS to make us suffer to protect itself.
We should have gone to them on the first meeting and said, we’re off, give us your best deal and been prepared to walk away. Instead, we have been running scared from day one and as dear Mr Churchill said, you cannot negotiate with a tiger, when your head is in its mouth!
Now, the damage is done, lets just get out and make Europe pay!
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None of us will get out of this alive
we were NEVER going to get a good deal.
In your opinion, what would be a good deal?
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Very interesting to read all the aforementioned comments, but nobody seems to have addressed the fact that “Mainland Europe” is in big trouble, financially, economically and politically all of which are good reasons for the UK to be getting out sooner rather than later. To stay in would cost us dearly in monetary terms to say nothing about the very worrying swings to the far right. The deal on the table is better than no deal because the fallout from a no deal would be enormous in the short term (1-2 years)
Property is a long term investment as indeed are our businesses, so we should ‘park’ the selfish self-interest reasons for the moment and adopt a longer-term view. Yes, there will be some pain, but one cannot always expect to have an upward only economy, s the younger voters seem to think is their right. The tide comes in and goes out twice a day !
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To stay in would cost us dearly in monetary terms
Not disagreeing with you, but is it not highly likely coming out will cost us far more overall, in lost GDP, trading tariffs and possibly losing our frictionless trade with the largest single market in the world (as well as access to other countries in the world who have already negotiated deals with the EU in place)?
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There is a bigger picture than just trade, although we will still trade with Europe going forward because they cannot afford not to trade with UK. The main reason that the democratic populous of UK voted in a referendum to exit is that so many (myself included) have become disillusioned with the unelected bureaucrats who run Europe making our laws, creating unwanted legislation and dictating the way UK runs its country – particularly from with regard to the unwanted migrants, who have seriously contributed to the lawlessness on our streets.
Europe is shortly to be headed up by the leader of a poor ex-east block country and heaven only knows what disasters that will deliver.
We will save a lot of money too and the future will be brighter for our descendants, especially avoiding the ultimate bankruptcy of Europe, which is just waiting to happen.
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Looks like a car crash from every angle frankly.
Leavers & Remainers both Gulity of mistruths.
Public/Voters in LaLaLand over what is fact or fiction.
If Mrs May believes its best deal? ……put it back to the Voters to decide!
I’ll go with whatever the majority vote on the deal that is actually right here, right now ……not the farcial 1st Vote
It’s a farce, whatever way you look at it!
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Net cost of belonging to the EU is less than 2% of the UK GDP.
When we are no longer a gateway into Europe for foreign car makers, financial institutions, etc, the huge losses will far outweigh that relatively tiny contribution.
Then there are the incalculable and ongoing financial costs that we shall incur in just about every area of life and business from leaving. Not to mention the immense loss of influence on the world stage.
And all because too many people did not know the true facts and were blinded by bigotry and prejudice. It is tragic. Utterly tragic.
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Our agency is business as usual and helping those still wanting to move. Through listening t clients needs and concentrating on those wanting to move, we have achieved SIX new sales for January. We also turned out a good figure for exchanges. Brexit? depends on your outlook and the advice you give your customers!
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Brexit- smexit !!
The politicians cant resolve this because they dont understand why their constituents voted to leave as they did.
We cant have a second referendum otherwise there is a perfectly good argument for a third, fourt, fith etc.
Europe as a whole can survive without the UK more easily than the UK can survive (if that’s the right word) without Europe so not surprisingly they are playing hardball.
As a remoaner I am personally gutted we are leaving. But I am not (anymore) angry with the leavers like I have been for the last couple of years.
As far as the housing market is concerned.
A: We all have to live somewhere
B: sellers only sell because they have to or there is sufficient profit to do so.(yes there are other reasons but they fall in to either category one way or another).
C: So for next 6 months it’s going to be a tough slog but not impossible and the second 6 months? who knows !
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