Property transactions may have dipped by 4.5%, says HMRC

Depending on where you stand on the great “seasonally adjusted” divide, UK property transactions spent March dipping slightly – or going up.

For fans of seasonal adjustment, the number of sales slipped by 4.5% from February to 106,070 transactions. However, the figure was still up by 29.3% compared with a month ago.

Non-seasonally adjusted transactions crept up to 94,080, but are still lower than their peak of 109,550 a few months ago last November.

The data comes from HMRC and is based on Stamp Duty on properties over £40,000.

While all this seasonal adjustment and non-adjustment malarkey is clearly an irritating nonsense which merely adds unnecessary squiggles to the charts, it is interesting to see that on both counts, transactions remain roughly one-third below the highs of 2006 and 2007.

Before the end of 2007, transactions were peaking at some 150,000 a month (higher than that, seasonally adjusted, and lower than that, non-seasonally adjusted).

Peter Rollings, of Marsh & Parsons, said: “In London, a shortage of available property in the face of growing demand has been pushing prices higher and creating a strong sellers’ market.

“A two-bedroom flat in Fulham which we recently sold received 72 viewings and 14 offers within the space of two weeks.

“But talk of a bubble is still wide of the mark. In terms of property transactions, we’re still a long way off the pre-downturn highs of 2007, and there are also fresh signs that the market may be stabilising.

“In the last couple of months, we’ve seen more sellers marketing their property for sale in the busier spring season, easing the supply shortage and helping to give buyers a bit more breathing space.”

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